Arsenal vs FC Porto Preview

Arsenal and Porto will meet at the Emirates for the second leg of their Champions League knockout game.

Both sides met at the Estádio do Dragão two weeks ago with Porto snatching a 1-0 win right at the death despite Arsenal seeing more of the ball. The Gunners had 62% ball possession but recorded zero shots on target throughout the tie.

That loss was a one-off as it was their second loss in 2024 ending a run of five straight wins for Mikel Arteta’s side. But the Premier League leaders have bounced back since then, winning three games, including a gritty 2-1 win over Brentford at the weekend.

That weekend win would have given them the confidence needed to overturn this one-goal deficit. However, the Gunners, have been eliminated from nine of their previous ten UCL ties in which they have lost the first leg which doesn’t bode well for them.

The one exception in amongst those was against Porto in 2009/10 which is a good omen. Arsenal won the second leg 5-0 that time, part of a run of three successive home H2H wins ‘to nil’  – all by big enough margins to advance in 90 minutes here. Arteta’s side have been formidable on home turf in the UCL this season winning all three group games by an aggregate 12-0 scoreline, which should boost belief that a first UCL quarter-final appearance since 2009/10 is possible.

Meanwhile, Porto have Gelano to thank for having something to work with ahead of this tie. The Portuguese side come into this tie in good form having beaten Portimonense 3-0 on Friday night to keep on the coattails of the league leaders in the Portuguese top-flight.

That win extended their unbeaten run to six matches in all competitions (W5, D1), with four clean sheets in that streak, another of which would be enough to ensure they progress here. However, securing a clean sheet here seems unlikely, not only given the Gunners’ rampant recent form but also because Porto have never won when playing away against Premier League clubs (D3, L18).

Such a poor record has played its part in them being eliminated from their last seven knockout ties against English opposition which presents a huge psychological hurdle to overcome for a Porto side bidding to reach the UCL last eight for the first time since 2020/21.